A Democratic Revolution?

Charlie Cook is considered in these parts as the preeminent analyst and forecaster for all political races in America today:

To take over [the Senate in '06], Democrats must win the open seat in Tennessee, where the winner of the August 3 Republican primary will face Democratic Rep. Harold Ford. If Republicans hold Tennessee, they hold the Senate. If they have a truly horrible night and lose Tennessee, they lose the Senate.

But should the GOP's chances of picking up the open seat in Minnesota be dismissed so casually? Yes, even though Republicans have an excellent candidate in Rep. Mark Kennedy. And the same is true for the party's chances in Washington state, where the GOP is fielding a formidable challenger to Sen. Maria Cantwell. The fact is, if the political environment is so anti-Republican that five incumbents lose, then the GOP won't be able to gain ground in any Senate race. So, under the Republican apocalypse scenario, the Senate comes down to Tennessee.